The Iran Deal: The Backside Of What You Need To Know
- Details
- Category: Politics
- Published: Tuesday, 14 July 2015 15:40
- Written by Pam Keith
by Pam Keith
It's done. We have a document, a deal with Iran to scrutinize. Already, there are those who insist that we could have gotten a better deal. They, of course, were not involved in the marathon negotiations and have no gauge on what Iran was or was not willing to do.
In order to effectively assess whether this deal gets done what we needed it to do, we must move
 |
 |
 |
away from the rhetoric and focus on where Iran is at the moment. To us, Iran is the sworn enemy of Israel and a state sponsor of terrorism. There can be no debate about that. Our worry has been, and remains that a nuclear Iran is an existential threat to Israel. Iran has been consistent and unrelenting in her hate of Israel.
But Iran is more than just the most bombastic hater of Israel. She is the epicenter of Shia Islam. Iran is the hub of Shia Islamic theology and the supplier of resources to Shia movements all over the world. Right now, the Middle-East is awash in conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims. It is in her role as benefactor to Shia factions that Iran finds herself in the strange position of assisting the Iraqi's and the United States in the fight against ISIS.
ISIS is Sunni. But more importantly, ISIS styles itself as the ultimate Sunni authority, both with respect to theological purity and military strength. When ISIS declares that it is THE Islamic State, what it means is that all other Muslim authorities must cede to the authority of ISIS, which includes the various Imams, Kings and Emirs around the Muslim World (some of whom are allies of the United States). ISIS undermines the authority of all of the Muslim dynastic kingdoms, including the religious authority of the Saudi King, who is the keeper of the most holy Muslim sights, Mecca and Medina.
In the general scheme of things, Iran likely does not worry about Israel trying to erase it off the face of the earth. So long as Iran does not provoke Israel, the uneasy detent between the two states will continue. The existential threat to Iran is ISIS!! ISIS has demonstrated a willingness to go to unconscionable extremes to wrest control of Iraq and Syria. It has done unspeakable things to combatants and civilians alike, and it is preaching a world-wide gospel of hate and intolerance toward Shia Islam with an unprecedented reach, persuasiveness and efficacy. Iran is likely as worried about the success of ISIS in appealing to young Muslims all over the world as any other nation.
In this context, I can understand why Iran would be willing to forego some (and let's not kid ourselves, it's really just "some") of her nuclear capability in order to free up capital and get access to weapons to combat ISIS, and to support Shia factions all over the Muslim world. I am very worried about the idea of lifting the arms embargo on Iran. We all should be. But let's not be naive. If Iran so much as flinches in the direction of Israel, Israel and the United States will act with swift and devastating effect. As the keeper of Shia Islam, Iran cannot afford to be compromised in such a fashion.
Every deal involves compromises, and I have no doubt that this one has unpalatable compromises too. My question is whether we are doing something that will increase rather than decrease violence in the Muslim world. Russia seems to be eager to sell Iran long range ballistic missiles. I hope the deal puts the brakes on that. Is a stronger and more wealthy Iran a good thing in the Middle East? While I don't doubt that Israel will think not, it is our other Arab allies, like Saudi Arabia, who have the most to lose from a strong and well armed Iran. Usually, the old adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" holds true. In this case ... maybe not so much?
 |
|